The rub: figuring out what that right amount is. For the economy to grow, we need banks to accept the risk of lending, but we also need them to take the right amount of risk. What is stopping us from preventing them?Īccording to Danielsson’s new book, The Illusion of Control, it has to do with our love-hate relationship with finance. He argues that 1763 was different from what had come before, as it was caused “not by war or crop failure but rather by shadow banking and the extensive use of financial instruments allowing risk to hide and spread.” Over the subsequent 250 years, we have had many other similar crises. The Icelandic economist Jon Danielsson believes de Neufville’s misadventures in banking triggered the first modern global financial crisis. The bank soon folded, and the effects quickly spread to other banking centers, including Hamburg and Berlin. De Neufville’s creditors got cold feet, and, without the cash on hand to repay them, he was forced to sell his stocks, pushing down commodity prices further. He made fabulous profits until the war ended in 1763, at which point food production rose again and prices plunged. De Neufville became a major lender to Prussia, his loans secured against huge stocks of commodities like wheat and oats. A few years later, the Seven Years War began, spurring several European powers to seek new financing for their armies. In 1751, a young Dutchman living in Amsterdam, Leendert Pieter de Neufville, founded a bank. Please be sure to include all forms with your name, complete mailing address and phone number.Illustration by Malte Mueller The Illusion of Control: Why Financial Crises Happen, and What We Can (and Can’t) Do About Itīy Jon Danielsson, Yale University Press, 2022 Contact InformationĮmail, mail or FAX all forms to the address below. If your company chooses to receive payment electronically, be sure to complete the EFT Authorization Form. This form requires your signature, so you will need to print, sign and return via FAX or mail order for the process to be completed.
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